Chapter 1
Counterfactual.
There’s an open problem in philosophy – it involves understanding and dealing with these things called ‘counterfactuals’ or ‘what if scenarios’. “What if the Titanic didn’t sink?”, “What if Lincoln hadn’t been shot”.
The problem, in essence, is that these statements seem sensible, some would even say they have meaningful answers. The problem is that predicate logic literally cannot handle counterfactuals, a limitation built into the nature of material implication.
Say ‘if this, then that’. you mean ‘either not this, that, or both’. And if this happened, then asking ‘what if not this’ has two answers, ‘that or not that’.
Because, y’know, if ‘this’ didn’t happen when it did, logic blows up. Principle of explosion and all that.
Did that make sense to you? Because it makes perfect sense to me.
Then again, counterfactuals are keyed into the way I see the world, courtesy of my power. If I hit on that girl over there, things will go south because she already has a girlfriend. If I strike up a conversation with that tough guy in the cool hat over there, I’ll get a cool reception because he’s a nazi heading towards Brockton.
I don’t know these things, of course. I’m just making assumptions. They get a bad rep, really. If you make the true assuptions, you get called wise. If you make the right assumptions, you’ll be called perceptive.
Most people can’t do either, and take out their frustrations on assumptions themselves.
Me? I make a game of it. If I would walk into the bus station lobby with too much swagger in my step, looking around like i own the place, I see the people who start paying attention. If I reach for the gun in my jacket. I see the cool-hat guy tense up and start watching me.
Cause and effect. It’s my power. A little precog, a little postcog, something of a danger sense. it’s no mean ability, as far as the usual Thinker powers go.
Cause and effect. I’ve seen it called Linear Thinking, sometimes Masculine Thinking, but that’s gone out of style.
Linear. Change variable X to affect variable Y. Model your farms with spherical cows.
It’s certainly appealing, though that’s likely my gender speaking.
I would squeeze the Styrofoam cup in my hand to a rippled and folded ball. Some of the last drops of drink would drip out, draining on to my hand. Unpleasant. I will instead tilt the cup and crumple it from the side, the liquid drip onto the floor. Better.
This is all happening about about twenty, thirty seconds from now – I’m still in the parking lot, but my awareness is in the future, after I’ve made to the glass doors leading into the bus lobby, with vending machines, counters selling bus passes, and no mean variety of people, mostly sitting, some milling about.
That little distance lets me scope out actions, making those small optimizations. It’s convenient, if wasteful. But I haven’t needed a serious power usage for several days, and the headaches were a long way off from here.
I will glance at my watch (13:12:43) and open the door with my right hand, the folded and ripped ball of Styrofoam still in my left, I will turn left a bit, drawing the door open and holding it there with half my back. There is a person not far behind me – they will hurry a slight bit and say ‘thanks’ when it becomes apparent I’m holding it for them.
The ball in my hand, I turn my gaze a bit farther in the future, speculative. Navigating the dozens – hundred now – paths open to follow should have been impossible, a normal person shouldn’t be able comprehend the minute difference between each of those branches, evaluate them, and maintain that course perfectly. My arm will swing up, the release of what once was a cup timed with numerous tiny optimizations to counter the fuzz of my nervous system, the slightest breezes, and it will sail in a perfect arc, landing in a dingy brown trashcan with weighted flapped on each side that required pressure to open. But another person will have come up to it while I was walking to the door, tossing their lunch in. The ball hits their arm and is knocked cleanly into the can.
Linear.
A slight smile will touch my lips, and I consider looking up and aiming it at the person – the man. I would, but they aren’t looking at me, instead glance at the shot I just made. I would look at lady who I bounced the shot off of – annoyed. The man will return his gaze to me, giving me a amused grunt and a “nice one.” My smile will widen a bit and it won’t be faked.
I will glance at my watch (13:12:56) again. I’m presently just opening the door, my awareness then just over thirteen seconds in the future.
The space of possibilities widens over further, thousands of paths snaking forth. I focus on a disruptive one, testing what happens when I draw attention to myself.
I would dig a phone from my pants and appear to focus intently on it while walking briskly forth, looking for all the world to be imminently crashing headfirst into a woman holding three bags filled with groceries on her arms and digging something out of a forth while walking direct at me. As I would walk, my awareness jumps down branches miliseconds in the future, turn my head in different directions each time, building up a panoramic mental picture of the entire lobby. I would sidestep her at the last possible moment and even catching a bag that slips from her arm as she jumps out of my way, exclaiming and probably cursing at me. I put forth effort to make it look suspiciously effortless.
Three people catch my eye, and I keep my eye on them as I double back through the timeline, turning around every few fractions of a second to further dissect their reactions.
A late-twenties women would wouldn’t even be looking in my direction until the sidestep, before turning up her head and looking right at me (a sensory power? another precog?); the tough-looking probably-cape nazi guy with the cool hat from earlier; and a girl in her late teens in the corner of the room, beside a door.
I my awareness gets all the way back to me just stepping into the lobby, I will glance at my watch (13:13:09) then glance at each of the suspects. The guy doesn’t notice me, just idly watching buses come and go. The woman is sitting a distance away on the right side of the room, looking down, perhaps on a phone or reading. The girl is watching, even now. I step back to the present, where I’m stepping into the lounge, barely seconds behind my focus. I will have not have looked up in the future, meaning I can’t look up now without losing the my place later in time (I have only one awareness, after all). This is already after my cool trick, so I have nothing to lose. I glance up – still watching me. Very suspicious.
I step forward ten seconds, having already navigated to a seat and just about to sit down.
I make a quick decision – I don’t expect complications today. I’ll still regret this.
It takes a moment of focus but I mentally flip my gaze, wrenching it from being a vague awareness of the future to a vague awareness of the past. Where my forward gaze was looking at the nebulous cloud of future paths I could take, my backward gaze was a solid wall of experience. I still laugh, just a bit, at that. My power gives me perfect recollection, just as a side-effect.
I trace my way back along that wall, each moment frozen in time. I go back a minute, to before I crushed the cup, and do mentally pull myself out of the undertow, it works on the third try, and I feel the dull warning of a Thinker headache building. but I look up, and I up and through the glass into the lobby, to where the girl is. She’s still watching me. Confirmation.
Notes
Mike Salas, a.k.a “Counterfactual”
- Power:
- Like a hybrid Coil/Dinah: can peruse simulated future like Coil, can see the ‘shape’ of futures like Dinah.
- Can’t instant win due to Thinker limitation; headaches
- Has a ability to look at the future at different scales
- Can also flip perspective and look at the past, except this is more costly
- Tricks
- Coil-esque limited omniscience: anything knowledge he could potentially gain is his, except he has more limited access to this knowledge:
- can’t take too long, because he can only focus on a future for so long
- limited by his current knowledge: if a computer requires password, he needs to crack the password before getting bits out of the computer. This means he can’t do a PtV brute force.
- Coarse personality dowsing: can get a ‘read’ on a person by looking at the distribution of their facial epressions after a few minutes of conversation via his Dinah-esque holistic view. E.g. an angry person is more likely to become angry easier
- Danger sense: pretty obvious
- Precision a few pegs below numberman: Suppose County wants to do some trick shot: he can filter out futures to ones where he throws a ball at a certain wall, than filter those futures on whether the balls hits a certain angle, rinse, repeat.
- Consistency note: how can he PtV a trickshot but not a person? One word: linearity. A small change in angle incident produces a small change in reflection. A small change in phrasing has generally unpredictable effects.
- Coil-esque limited omniscience: anything knowledge he could potentially gain is his, except he has more limited access to this knowledge:
- How do you kill it?
- Overwhelming force: he has the same weakness as contessa; he is still human. IN fact he is worse than contessa in this regard, because she could just ask “how do I not die today?”, while Mike has a tradeoff between detail and foresight; he can see a bullet coming if he walks down the wrong road today, he can see a nuke coming if he stays in this town this week, at it scale just like that.
- Thinker interference: add another precog or time traveler into the mix and you get weird artifacts due to recursive simulation add/or time travel weirdness. Defeating a Thinker with this is a well-documented PRT procedure.
- Be patient: this isn’t contessa; his power isn’t always on. Given his high-profile activity, he is guaranteed to let his guard down eventually by the very limitations of his power.
- Personality:
- Super-Goals
- Take over the world: he wants to ultimate power to create a system that works
- Save the world: he wants to help people
- Don’t die: ultimately, he values the life of him and his own more than random strangers
- Quirks
- Narcissism?
- Overconfidence
Malone Becker, a.k.a. “Freezerburn”
- Power:
- Shaker temperature manipulation: can move the heat around over a distance of ~50 feet
- Manton limitation: she can affect the skin of people, but not the innards
- Tricks
- can insta-freeze anyone by throwing a waterbottle and bursting it with her power.
- can detect and track people with her necessary perceptual power.
- could overclock a computer by siphoning off heat.
- How do you kill it?
- She’s still a squishy human
- anything not affected by extreme heat or cold pretty much hard counters her.
- just snipe her
- Super Secret Special Ability
- Has Antimemetic power focusing on names
- this power comes from the former leader of her gang, whom she was useful to he distributed stranger powers while also conferring master effects on them
- his power may or may not be sourced from the Eden/Zion
- evaded capture by literally changing her name (preenting anyone from connecting her with her old name)
- can apply this effect to anyone, giving and taking arbitrary names
- can take away the capacity for unique names or any name all together. the first case turns a person into a 1d caricature, the second into a 1d animal
- giving extra names effectively makes them multi-natured
- more powerful effects “bleed out”, so a nameless object might pass it’s namelessness unto others
- user isn’t immune: changing the name of something means the user itself might forget it ever had a different name. user might forget nameless objects even exist
- this power comes from the former leader of her gang, whom she was useful to he distributed stranger powers while also conferring master effects on them
- Has Antimemetic power focusing on names
- Personality
- Goals
- don’t die
- rise to the top
- create a powerful gang?
- Goals
Diana Arellano
- Power:
- Can manipulated the emotional relationships between people
- is affected by the degree of seperation, so her ability ot infulence a friend of a friend is less than her ability to influence a friend
- because of this, she makes friends with as many people as possible
- Tricks
her social graph is grounded in real life, so she gets a god’s eye view of the city because of how connected the human social graph tends to be, she can pretty much track anyone, and figure out a lot about purely from their social conections
her power works on herself, so she can literally switch sides whenever she feels like it
- How do you kill it?
- She’s still human
- Find someone with no connections, they’ll be invisible to her
- disclaimer: this is seriously fucking hard
- A sufficiently powerful master or emotional manipulator may be able to distort her view of them or others
- How does Whisperer affect her?
- She gains the ability to manipulate the connection inside someone’s head, effectively becoming a perfect brainwasher
- She could also gain the ability to affect the the relationship between people and objects
- note: this is seriously fucking powerful:
- trap people by making them literally attracted to the trap
- ward people by making them fear a certain object
- hide from people by making place people literally can’t notice
- Personality
- Goals:
- hide form Coil
- find her family
- Goals:
- Quirks
- is young
- Notes
- Maybe She was hidden from coil using a anitmeme
Assorted Thinkers
- Gavin Reynolds/“Boilerplate”
- Computer Science Thinker
- Rogue
- Leonard Meyers/“Snapshot”
- Precog: can send one visual/auditory stimulus backwards in time. No time limit or use limit. Can only send back one at a time.
- Rogue (Gavin’s bodyguard)
- Ariana Roth/“Sybil”
- Can enter a ‘vision’ similar to Coil’s timeline, except it occurs at about 7x speed.
- Naomi Heidy/“Shinigami”
- Have a vague sense of how likely a person is to die over time, and can influence it.
- Note: the mechanism of this power is that changing a person’s chance of dying is just making reality bite a bit harder or softer, e.g. a bullet the might hit an artieries missing just a few milimeters. or the reverse, etc.
- Have a vague sense of how likely a person is to die over time, and can influence it.
- Lilah McKay
- Can sense people’s intentions. If the person is in sight, the sense is overlayed on their location. If they aren’t, she has a scalar sense of it.
Afterthoughts
There was a another chapter or two of this scrawled in my middle school composition books, undoubtedly lost to time.
This story was going to take place in “Clockwork City”, a made up techno-city conceived by an urban design tinker.
A major plotpoint was a thinker-heavy conspiracy organization operating in Clockwork, but I’ve forgotten so many titles, ten years on. “Whisperer” was a trump that viewed shards as animals, and had the ability to twist/augment cape’s powers. I believe Whisperer would have been key for powering up Counterfactual for the endgame.
(In this timeline, Taylor died in Leviathan, and the long-term goal would have been to create an artificial entity to combat Zion, which Mike would have been able to direct with his power. Something like that.)